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    26 January

    Counter-intuitive wisdom

    Most of what counts as wisdom is common sense. It is rather obvious when you think about it. But some gems, the really valuable, hard-earned ones, are counter-intuitive. They don't make sense on the face of it, but deep understanding shows that they are true.
     
    Here's today's gem for your illucidation and edification:
     
    In order to minimize regret you have to take risks.
    05 January

    What's your dangerous idea?

    One of the reasons I look forward to the new year is that The World Question Center publishes the answers to their annual question from some of the most brilliant minds on the planet. This year's question: 
    What is your dangerous idea?

    The history of science is replete with discoveries that were considered socially, morally, or emotionally dangerous in their time; the Copernican and Darwinian revolutions are the most obvious. What is your dangerous idea? An idea you think about (not necessarily one you originated) that is dangerous not because it is assumed to be false, but because it might be true?

    How would you answer?
    02 December

    TEOTD #39 : the Artifact

    In this thought experiment you discover an ancient artifact. It appears as a small plain box with a dial and a button. The dial can be turned to any number between -100 and +100 inclusive. When you first pick up the box you mysteriously acquire the knowledge of its purpose: When you press the button every live human on Earth will have their IQ adjusted by the amount specified on the dial. Everyone but the person who presses the button, your intelligence will remain unchanged. Once used the box will disappear. One more thing, if someone's IQ is reduced below 0 they will immediately die. Of course anyone with an IQ below around 40 will need assistance to survive, just as it is now.
     
    You don't know how the artifact works or where it came from. It could be magical, divine, demonic or alien, it doesn't really matter. Assume for the sake of this thought experiment that the box works exactly as described. What do you do? (Yes, you may sell it on eBay but you will only get US$29 and have to cover the cost of shipping to Florida yourself :-)
    24 November

    Mor'on intelligence

    The discussion on dumb people with high IQs continues on the SL4 list...
     
     On 11/22/05, Thomas Buckner <tcbevolver@yahoo.com> wrote:
    > By comparison, former NH governor and White House
    > chief of staff John Sununu reputedly has a 180 IQ
    > and eidetic memory (both of which I would kill
    > for) but somehow managed to be an utter fool in
    > my estimation (among other follies, circa 1990 he
    > ran a climate sim on his home computer, which
    > couldn't have been much better than a 386 with a
    > couple megs of ram, and decided global warming
    > wasn't for real! When real climatologists running
    > supercomputers weren't willing to place total
    > faith in their sims.) If there's a better parable
    > illustrating that IQ-isn't-everything, I'd like
    > to hear it.

     
    [I replied...]
    There is another possibility here. Perhaps Sununu ran his little
    program enough to gain an intuition into the chaotic nature of
    dynamical complex systems like weather simulations. He observed how
    small changes in the inputs and assumptions led to large changes in
    the results and (correctly) reasoned that running on a supercomputer
    isn't going to mitigate that problem. So he concluded that
    climatologists couldn't possibly know with any degree of certainty
    from running their own simulations whether global warming was going to
    happen.
    18 November

    QOTD

    Spotted on the (rather interesting) SL4 mailing list...

    They say smart people can be dumb. Apparently superintelligent people can be retarded.

    This was in reference to a guy with an alleged IQ of 195 who is also a proponent of ID. How can smart people be dumb? I think this apparent contradiction can be resolved by realizing that there are two dimensoins at work here. One is general intelligence (the g factor) measured by IQ tests, the other is rationality. The two dimensions are only loosely correlated.

    06 November

    TEotD #22: the alien proposition

    In today's thought experiment you are abducted by aliens. Before you get your knickers in a twist, no they are not interested in probing you. They turn out to be extremely friendly and intelligent. They tell you that you have been chosen at random to make a very important decision (or at least vote on it, they hint that you may not be the only abductee though you see no signs of others).
     
    The aliens have knowledge and technology that could transform earth into a paradise but it comes at a terrible price. They can eliminate all forms of suffering due to disease, war, accidents, crime, etc using something they call "femtotechnology" but after 1000 years the atomic-scale machines will turn into grey goo and destroy all life and other complex structures that it has contact with.
     
    So the question for you is this: Do you accept their gift along with the deferred death sentence for everyone and everything on Earth or do you decline and let humanity forge its own future? The aliens show you enough that you have every reason to believe they are telling you nothing but the truth in this matter.
     
    [I first heard of this scenario from Keith Henson. I haven't heard from Keith since he was recently deported from Canada, I hope he is well...]
    30 October

    The Magus

    vector: dAndroid

    Dark and Sinister, you are The Magus
    You are The Magus! You are everything that wicked
    is.

    Which Piece of H.R. Giger Art work are you most like?
    brought to you by Quizilla

    28 October

    Good things come...

    This ad for Guiness is awesome. Viva le evolution!
    http://www.bestadsontv.com/ad_details.php?id=634
    27 October

    QOTD

    Quote of the day....
    We live in a world full of insane people. Sanity is an island battered in an ocean of frothing delusion. The people who believe in science are the minority. The people who believe in bloody fairytales are the overwhelming majority.  - Cenk Uygur
    25 October

    Non-existence proof

    Today it is my pleasure to publish a guest blog from my swell friend, and all-around hoopy frood, TK. Coincidentally it is on the topic of the logic of non-existence, one of the many subjects I was thinking about while away on holiday last week and had mentally earmarked for a blog post.

     I was debating with my father over the Thanksgiving weekend and discussion passed through to the existence of god.  I mentioned that I tend to see the problem as one of proof.  Since no one has proven that god exists I assume that it doesn't exist.  His retort (and I'm paraphrasing the exchange) was that not being able to prove the existence of god was the same as proving the existence of god - that you have to go on fiath either way.  I tried to explain to him that the absence of evidence isn't proof of existence, but he was not buying/getting it.  Essentially I felt that he thought I was nuts because he felt that a lack of evidence for and a lack of evidence against were the same thing.  In the end the argument wasn't about the existence of god it was about this logical problem.

    Problems that seem to arise for most people when dealing with this logic:
           1) the logic is slightly difficult (e.g. sometimes takes double negatives to explain)
           2) the concept becomes more confusing when you're dealing with something that people acknowledge that they cannot see (e.g. god)

    After the fact I tried to come up with an analogy to make it personal for my dad and make it obvious how the logic falls apart.  I developed this, mostly because most of my analogies tend to be about cars anyway:

    Some people believe mom (my dad's wife) owns a red car but noone has seen it and mom isn't talking.  There are rumours about it - that it's really fancy and really nice and goes really fast - but when pressed everyone who is asked says they heard the rumour from someone else, or thinks they read about it somewhere.  There is no tangible evidence at all that the red car exists - no photos, no tire marks, no credible eye-witnesses, no hoarded swatches of upolstery, no log of oil changes at speedy lube.  The one piece of ambiguous evidence is a scrap of paper, with handwriting that some people believe is mom's, that reads, "wash the red car."  There are 3 possibilities here:
           1) that the car exists and mom is keeping it a secret (she's a bonafide master of secrets)
           2) that the car exists and she doesn't even know that she owns the car (she might be nuts)
           3) the car does not exist contrary to the rumours
    So then the question is, does the car exist?  Until it can be proved, it would be best to assume option (3) that the car does not exist.  Any other conclusion than that would expose some sort of delusion.

    That said, I'm not sure that this is well constructed enough to be compelling.  I'm not trying to sway my Dad into believing that god doesn't exist (though if that happens I'm not going to complain) but rather that his logic is poor.

    05 October

    Today's pet peeve

    According to this article, "The Alberta Motor Association says that in a recent driver survey, eighty per cent of drivers thought their skills were above average.". Fair enough, people tend to overestimate their own competence. The reporter goes on to state "But police say that is not what they see on city streets." No kidding. Did some moron actually ask the police what percentage of drivers are observed to have above average driving skills?
    01 October

    c-realm

    I've very proud to host the c-realm website since 2000 for my friend KMO. The c-realm comic is about memetics, life and everything (some of them are not work safe ;-). If you have the time I'd recommend starting at the beginning to follow the adventures of the Lion and his friends. Or sample some random strips to get an idea. Many of the strips are accompanied by a TOTD that will make you think. KMO is one of my net.friends I met through the CoV which makes all the effort worthwhile.

    Truth and falsity

    Recently I've been wondering how many true statement there are compared to the number of false statements. Yes, really. By "true statements" I don't just the ones that have been stated (spoken, written down, even thought) in the past, or even all the ones that will be stated in the life of the universe. I'm talking about the much larger set of possible true statements of any length in any language. Clearly (I suggest) the number is infinite. So at a first glance you might be thinking that if the number of true statements is infinite and the number of false statements is also infinite, then the number of true statements must equal the number of false statements. And you would be right, but for the wrong reasons. You have to be very careful when comparing two infinite values. Sometimes one is infinitely greater than the other. For example the number of integers has to be larger than the number of primes because the latter is a subset even though both are countably infinite.
     
    Here's my sketch of a proof that the number of possible true statements and false statements are equal. First imagine a list of all possible true statements and assign each one an odd number (1, 3, 5, 7, ....). Now for each even number, take the statement at the preceding odd number and apply a logical negation to it. For example if statement #35 reads "snow is white" then at position #36 write in "snow is not white". Using this construction every odd-numbered statement will be false. Now if this list is complete (there are no possible statements that are left off the list) then the number of true statements and false statements should be the same since the number of even and odd integers is the same.
     
    Two questions: Does my "proof" hold up under critical scrutiny? Should I seek professional help?
    28 September

    pop quiz #29

    Fill in the blanks...
     
    Life is a __________ that needs to be __________.
     
    22 September

    Convergent interests

    I found it an interesting exercise to map out the relationships between some of my strongest interests. What would yours look like?

    Ticketmonster

    Last night I bought tickets online for the Mediaeval Baebes (MacEwan Hall, Tuesday October 04). I hope to see some of you there.
     
    A couple weeks ago I bought tickets to the upcoming Nine Inch Nails concert online. I reserved my block of tickets within about 30 seconds of them going on sale and they are decent seats but not great (2nd balcony about half way back). There are at least 2000 seats that are better than mine and I don't count the floor at all. I doubt they were all sold in the first 30 seconds so my question is what happened to them. Were they sold before the tickets went on sale to the general public? If so, how do I get in on that action? Or maybe they are being reserved for people with special access? If so, how do I get in on that action?

    The Cynic's Conundrum

    Robin Hanson (inventor of idea futures and one of the smartest people I know) has recently published a (very short) essay on cynicism. The cynic's conundrum is that when cynics apply cynicism to themselves (or others like them) they come out looking like losers more than people with true insight. Quite interesting. I'm often inclined towards cynicism myself but I try to keep it in check.
    20 September

    pop quiz #67

    Reply with the blanks filled in:

    It makes little sense to try to _________ without first reading _________

     e.g. It makes little sense to try to manage a software project without first reading Brook's The Mythical Man-Month.
     
    or It makes little sense to try to learn perl without first reading the llama book.
    16 September

    wtf #35

    More evidence that the world is being run by clueless noobs. The Bush administration is objecting to the creation of the triple X domain, saying it has concerns about a virtual red-light district reserved exclusively for Internet pornography. Creating the domain isn't going to increase or decrease the amount of pr0n on the net but it will make it much easier for concerned citizens to block it if they wish. So essentially the Bush gang is make it harder to protect chlidren. Nice job, idiots.
     
    Also thanks to the fine folks at MSN that won't allow me to spell out the triple X domain. Sheesh.